And in 2019, there are still 1.13 million tons of production plans to be put into production japan property agency. Therefore, it is assumed that the nominal capacity production plan in 2020 is about 113 + 180 = 293 million tons per year. The weighted actual production capacity growth rate for the whole year is expected to be 7.2%, assuming only 60 % Is the production on schedule as scheduled japan property agency, and whether the load changes caused by the intervention of environmental protection and safety production (3) The anti-dumping duty on PVC imports from the United States japan property agency, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan has been cancelled on September 28 japan property agency, so the upper border of the later import window is suppressing Obviously, in the later period, we will follow the rising magnitude of imports in the general trade caliber japan property agency. At present, we will not give an estimate of the incremental imports. The growth rate of floor rubber downstream of PVC continues to be high japan property agency, and continues to contribute to growth . Balance sheet changes and perspectives: Looking forward to the balance sheet, the basic supply-demand balance will be slightly loose in 2020, and the main shift nodes will be reflected in the concentrated production of new capacity before and after it is realized. The view throughout the year was neutral, but after December, it faced a seasonal accumulation of the balance sheet. After the new capacity was realized in the middle of the year, the balance sheet returned to flattened to a slightly looser level, focusing on the first seasonal destocking of 2009-2101. The positive set is accompanied by the opportunity to add new capacity and seasonal accumulation. Therefore, it can be used as a cross-variety long configuration inside the chemical sector. At that time, pay attention to the degree of delivery of PVC capacity, the basis structure, and relative valuation. Empirical data test that the probability of demand in 2020 is linked to the low growth rate of real estate sales area that is one year ahead (2019) (drain riser, cable pipe), but there is still some demand linked to the rebound in completed area in the current period, that is, 2020. Refined decoration), the corresponding increase in production capacity by the date weighted capacity growth rate is 4.3%, the growth rate of new capacity growth is slightly higher than the growth rate of demand, the overall approach is flat. (3) Imports continued to squeeze out the remaining imports against the background of a large increase in domestic production capacity; however, the degree of slight excess has been loose from 2017 to the present and margins have weakened. It is expected that prices will continue to show a range consolidation feature. Since the anti-dumping duties on PVC imports from the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have been cancelled on September 28, the upper border of the import window in the later period has a significant suppression effect. and Q4 has a greater relationship with the tightness of the inventory that year. The accumulative inventory is too fast throughout the January-April 2019, and the basis difference has remained negative for a long time. The arbitrage in the attraction period freezes the inventory, and it is now unsettled and flows into the market in the early stage of the contract. The accumulated amount in the first half of the period is now frozen.
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